Bitter Pill for President Tinubu to Swallow

By Márìndọtí Oludare

I am an avid supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his policies. I invested my time, intellect, and financial resources into his election campaign in 2023. I need nothing in return for my efforts because I fully understand the necessity of his reforms for my generation to thrive. My criticism today should not be dismissed as the grievance of a disgruntled supporter. Instead, it stems from my deep concern for the success of his administration and the welfare of Nigerians.

I believe the president’s bold reforms will require more than four years to materialize into the desired results, and I remain committed to supporting his re-election. However, as we march toward 2027, I feel compelled to highlight an area where I believe his administration might be blinded by sycophancy, the rigors of office, or perhaps a touch of hubris—food insecurity.

The president once likened the current economic pain to the pain of childbirth, where the mother’s suffering eventually gives way to the joy of welcoming new life. But he may have failed to consider that in some cases, prolonged labor accompanied by complications—like a baby’s head too large for the mother’s pelvis—can result in stillbirth or long-term developmental issues like cerebral palsy. In such instances, timely intervention, like a Caesarean section, is needed to save both mother and child.

Nigeria, I fear, finds herself in a similar predicament—struggling to survive this “labor” of reforms, teetering dangerously between birth injury and stillbirth. The stampedes during recent festive seasons, where people lost their lives scrambling for basic food items, are a grim reminder of the severity of hunger. These incidents reflect a government that has underestimated the urgency of food insecurity. While the organizers of such events bear some responsibility, the primary blame lies with a system that has failed to maintain public safety and provide for its people.

Food insecurity in Nigeria is not new. Long before terrorism and banditry worsened the situation, Nigeria was already food-insecure, relying heavily on imports to meet basic needs. Our inability to produce sufficient food domestically has been exacerbated by poor policies and an unfavorable security climate.

President Tinubu deserves credit for his decision to restructure the police, but his delays in making this key decision, which would bolster internal security and in turn address food insecurity, deserve censure. His efforts to procure local government autonomy through the Supreme Court are commendable, but they fail to address the root issue—state-level financial autonomy through constitutional restructuring. Without it, state and local governments cannot adequately fund policing or other developmental needs.

President Tinubu’s sycophants celebrate his recognition as THISDAY’s “Man of the Year,” yet they misunderstand the award’s true significance. It is an acknowledgment of influence, not performance or good intentions. Similarly, figures like Hitler and Stalin were named Time’s “Man of the Year” for their influence, not for being paragons of virtue. This award is a mere recognition of the pervasive impact of his policies on the people, not an endorsement of his performance in office.

The reality is stark: Nigerians are suffering under severe hardship. Protectionist policies on food imports, aimed at promoting local production, have only deepened this suffering. Despite decades of high import duties, Nigeria still depends on imports for critical staples:
•Wheat: Nigeria produces less than 5% of the wheat it consumes. While duties on durum wheat range from 5% to 15%, this hasn’t spurred domestic production.
•Corn: With a 20% duty on sweet corn, Nigeria still imports about 10% of its needs to meet demand.
•Rice: Despite a 70% duty on rice, domestic production falls short, meeting less than 50% of the country’s demand.

These import duties, combined with poor purchasing power, make basic food items unattainable for many Nigerians. This protectionism is counterproductive. Instead of shielding local industries, it stifles competition and keeps Nigerian farmers and producers in a cycle of inefficiency. Insanity is doing same thing repeatedly while expecting different results. These policies have not worked, it’s high time we pivot and realize food production and food importation are not mutually exclusive. A quarter quota duty free food importation can help provide short term needs while government maintains long term investment in food production.

The protectionist mindset extends to other areas. Post-harvest losses remain a significant challenge because we lack refrigerated transport for perishable goods. Yet, the government imposes duties of 30%-70% on refrigerated trucks, effectively discouraging their use.

The Automobile Industry Development Act of 2014 is another example of misplaced priorities. For over a decade, none of Nigeria’s so-called car manufacturers have sold 1,000 cars annually in a country of over 200 million people. These companies are merely assembling foreign parts and lack the infrastructure to scale. Protectionist duties have neither created a viable automobile industry nor made cars affordable for Nigerians.

President Tinubu must act swiftly to address food insecurity. Ending protectionism on food imports is a necessary first step. Allow food to flow freely into Nigeria while simultaneously investing in:
1.Farmer education.
2.Improved seeds and modern farming techniques.
3.Infrastructure to ensure Nigerian produce can compete globally.

Such investments will make local food production profitable and naturally competitive, rendering imported food unattractive.

This issue is not just about survival; it is about preventing electoral disaster in 2027. While the president won with approximately 35% of the votes, APC controls 49% of house of rep and 55% of senate seats (both elections held on the same day). If President Tinubu fails to act, opposition candidates will exploit public frustration. Promises to reinstate fuel subsidies and reverse the unified exchange rates will seem attractive to a desperate populace, even if such policies are economically unsustainable.

As the Yorùbá proverb says, “Ìnú tí ebi bá wọ̀, ọ̀rọ̀ míì kò le woọ́ mọ́” (a hungry stomach cannot stomach another conversation). This bitter pill may be hard for President Tinubu to swallow, but it is necessary to save the life of this “new Nigeria” he hopes the Renewed Hope agenda brings.

*Oludare, a medic and the Convener, Social Rehabilitation Gruppe (SRG), writes from Texas, USA.