Economy: NBS to Rebase Nigeria’s GDP, CPI to Reflect Current Realties

Arthur Eriye

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in conjunction with the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), have disclosed plans to rebase both the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI). The NBS disclosed this during a sensitisation workshop in Lagos recently.

The rebasing aims to align economic statistics with current realities and account for structural changes in Nigeria’s economy.

The year 2019 has been chosen as the new base year, replacing the previous base year of 2010, while 2024 is set as the new base year for the CPI.

The data agency said it is in the  final stages of validating the data collected for the rebasing.

The rebased figures are slated for release by the end of January 2025. Post-rebasing activities will include further analysis and dissemination of the data.

The rebasing is expected to increase the perceived size of Nigeria’s economy. Also, it is expected to reflect changes in the economic structure, potentially altering the economic about Nigeria.

Tax to GDP ratio and debt to GDP ratio might adjust; for instance, the debt to GDP ratio will decrease from 18.5% if the GDP size increases significantly.

Furthermore, the rebasing will improve policy-making by providing policymakers with data that reflects the true state of the economy, thereby facilitating more effective economic planning and strategy formulation.

Once the new figures are released, there is the likely going to be a surge in per-capita income.

Sectors with the largest Contribution after rebasing

Crop production, trade, and real estate sectors will emerge  the largest contributors to Nigeria’s GDP. while Telecommunications, crude petroleum and natural gas, construction, and food, beverages, and tobacco make up the top seven.

Crude petroleum and natural gas have been expulsed by real estate, moving from third to fifth in economic contribution. Construction has entered the top seven, while public administration has been removed from this list.

Three new indices will be introduced: alongside the traditional headline, core, and food inflation:

•           Services Index: To track price increases in services like education and transport.

•           Energy Index: To monitor price fluctuations in the energy sector.

•           Farm Produce Index: To gauge price volatility and changes in agricultural products.

This will allow for a more detailed understanding of inflation across various sectors of the economy.

The bureau said it also plan to release two inflations reports in January 2025, the December 2024 CPI and the newly rebased CPI.