In Key Breakthrough, NUPRC Data Confirms Nigeria’s 1.5 Million bpd OPEC Oil Output

*To curb crude losses, commission set to implement advance cargo declaration solution

*Goldman Sachs predicts oil to trade between $70-$85 in 2025

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has confirmed that Nigeria’s crude oil production reached 1.5 million barrels per day in December 2024, a major milestone in the country’s quest to raise output significantly.

This new information from the upstream regulator aligns with a THISDAY report last week, quoting secondary sources, that Nigeria had finally met its Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, a feat that took a four-year struggle to achieve.

“The average crude oil production was 98.97 per cent of OPEC quota, that is 1.5 million barrels per day,” a footnote on the December production data just released by the upstream petroleum commission, stated.

In all, the data showed that when crude oil and condensate, which is excluded from OPEC computation, were combined for the December output circle, Nigeria’s total average liquids volume hit 1.667 million barrels per day last month.

In December, the NUPRC figures further showed that the country’s peak production in any day within the month was 1.79 million bpd, while the lowest was 1.57 million bpd.
“Lowest and peak production in December were 1.57 million bpd and 1.79 million bpd respectively. The daily average production in December was 1,667,560 barrels per day, comprising both crude oil (1,484,585 bpd) and condensate (182,975 bpd),” the data highlighted.

Nigeria had consistently blamed its inability to meet the quota on massive oil theft in the Niger Delta, waning investment in the sector, outright sabotage  as well as deteriorating infrastructure. These issues are being gradually tackled by the current administration.

Also, the NUPRC, led by its Chief Executive, Gbenga Komolafe, is set to enhance transparency and accountability in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector through the implementation of the Advance Cargo Declaration Solution (ACDS) and the Engineering Audit of Upstream Measurement Equipment and Facilities.

In a post on its social media handles, the NUPRC stated that these initiatives were being executed in collaboration with P-Lyne Energy and PE Energy Limited.
The advance cargo declaration solution with P-Lyne, it said, is designed to establish a robust framework for declaring and tracking crude oil transportation and exports from Nigeria.

“Its primary objectives include monitoring and accounting for the movement of crude oil within the country, preventing disruptions, theft, and under-declaration, and ensuring that only certified products are exported.

“This solution will also enable real-time tracking, reconciliation, and reporting of crude oil exports, thereby facilitating accurate revenue billing and generation,” the commission stated.

Besides, the Engineering Audit of Upstream Measurement Equipment and Facilities, in partnership with PE Energy, NUPRC said, aims to establish reliable baseline data for all measurement points, identify gaps in production and allocation measurement, and implement targeted interventions to enhance metering infrastructure.

“It addresses critical issues such as obsolete equipment, the lack of a comprehensive database, and the absence of real-time production measurement. These challenges have been identified as significant contributors to oil losses, with inaccurate measurement accounting for a substantial portion of crude oil losses in Nigeria,” the commission said.

These initiatives, the commission said, align with NUPRC’s mandate to ensure optimal government revenues from upstream petroleum operations, as specified in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)2021.
Meanwhile, this year, Goldman Sachs Research has forecast that Brent oil will trade within a range of $70-$85 per barrel and will average about $76, heavily influenced by the rate of production in non-OPEC countries and potentially also by geopolitical factors.

This is coming as it said that conflicts and geopolitical uncertainty impacted oil markets in 2024, making for an unpredictable year. The price of Brent crude oil averaged roughly $80 per barrel throughout 2024, but it fell to the low $70s at times, it recalled.

“The team’s forecast sees the price of oil increasing moderately in the short term, before dropping back to a similar level due to producers’ high spare capacity. But energy prices are impacted by geopolitical events, which can be difficult to predict, and could cause prices to break out of the $70-85 range,” it added.

High spare oil capacity is likely to restrict oil prices from climbing substantially this year in spite of continued solid demand, according to  Goldman Sachs Research.
In fact, the market’s expectation for a large surplus in oil production in 2025 may partially explain the decline in prices last year, it said,  forecasting a modest surplus of 0.4 million barrels per day.

“This surplus will be driven in part by an increase in production from non-OPEC nations. In total, Goldman Sachs Research forecasts that non-OPEC hydrocarbon liquids supply (excluding Russia) will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2025.
“Most of the growth will come from four American countries: from the US in particular, but also Canada, Brazil, and Guyana,’ it said.