Adebayo: Tinubu Administration’s Performance is Abysmal

The leader and presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in 2023 general election, Prince Adewole Adebayo, in an interview with journalists, says the Bola Tinubu-led administration has not performed to the expectations of Nigerians, thereby rates the administration’s performance at 22%

Let’s take it one step at a time. Do you believe President Bola Tinubu has good intentions and is sincere, but his approach is wrong? Is that correct?

There are three errors. The first error is that he wanted to do fiscal management, which is necessary in government. He wanted to do fiscal reform, which means saying, I don’t like the idea that government is spending so much money on certain things like subsidy—petroleum subsidy, life funding, trying to defend the naira by throwing money at it. That was causing a significant deficit in government financing, which in turn created a monetary problem. So what did he do? He removed the subsidy in a way that caused factor costs to rise, inflation to spiral, and further problems for the central bank in managing inflation and foreign exchange. At the same time, he is still running a deficit anyway. So you see the problem: the reform caused ripples in the larger economy, but the original issue he wanted to solve remains unresolved. All the money saved in the name of subsidy removal has disappeared. He is still borrowing more. The money diverted from subsidy has not increased employment in the economy. There’s no evidence to say that since they came into office, employment numbers have improved. That’s why I said the approach he took is wrong. If you examine the system he wants to run—a neoliberal system, which he has the right to pursue because it’s what he campaigned on—the problem lies in how he has set up his economic team. There’s no sign they are proactive. They are only reacting to the consequences of earlier actions, always defending and perpetually behind. The economic team is not nimble or sharp enough. Even if he chooses not to go outside his party to find people for the economic team, the All Progressives Congress (APC) has enough talent within its ranks. He hasn’t even utilized the best people within the party. In a few cases where he got the appointments right, you can see the difference. Here’s an example that proves the excuse of what I met on the ground is not valid. Take Nyesom Wike for instance, he doesn’t go around saying, Oh, I met the FCT with no streetlights, bad roads. He goes straight to work, and you can see the results.

Look at the Minister of Interior. He’s not lamenting about millions of passport backlogs or other inherited challenges. He’s addressing them. But every time you see President Tinubu on TV, where is he? He’s at the FCT opening one road or at the Ministry of Interior unveiling some technological system. Now, imagine if that same proactive approach was applied to the Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy or to agriculture.

As we enter 2025, a brand-new year full of opportunities, how would you appraise the Tinubu government’s performance over the past year?

It will be poor attempts, and it will be missed opportunities. And if I’m to tell them, there’s a lot of room for improvement.

When you say poor, I mean, if you were to grade it, and academically speaking, 10 being the highest, zero being the lowest, how would you grade this government? 

Well, 20%, or maybe 22%. So if you have a student who scores 22%, you know, that’s it. To be fair to them, 22%, because in some areas they made attempts, while in others, they just threw away the opportunities.

That’s how I measure it—by how much of the opportunities for growth and development they have taken. They’ve taken less than 22%. It was even noticed that the Speaker of the House of Representatives, when the president addressed the joint session of the National Assembly, remarked that the 2024 budget had not been fully implemented. You will also see that the 2024 budget has now been extended by the National Assembly to almost the middle of this year. So, they haven’t taken opportunities. This is not about a personal measurement; it’s an objective metric of how far they have dealt with the issues. You will see the implications in areas such as employment generation—they haven’t even reduced unemployment by 22%.

If you look at inflation, they’ve worsened it. If you look at the poverty index, they’ve worsened it. So, the measurement is not just a political one—it’s a measurement based on data coming from within their own government.

It seems they weren’t very ambitious with their projections for the naira-to-dollar rate, pegging it at N1,500 in the 2025 budget. Do you think this shows a lack of ambition or belief that things could improve beyond the current state?

When I look at that, I start thinking like a Scotsman. I would give them the Scottish double entry, meaning that if they manage it well, they can balance the middle. Do you know why? If the rates are unrealistically low, as some people believe, it means that in managing the financial budget, they will have to spend more naira to meet the numbers.

On the other hand, if they increase the sale of crude oil and other foreign receipts, they will have additional money. For example, there could be an excess crude account for the first time. If they manage solid minerals well, they could even create an excess solid minerals account. They’ll have these arbitrage excesses. For instance, they might project earning $150 million from selling 1 million barrels of crude oil, but end up earning $160 million instead. These little things could help even out and finance the budget. But the key issue is this: when you implement a budget, it must have a real impact on the streets. Pay your debts on time because they still have many unpaid debts. They still rely on treasury bills, which they use under court orders to slow down their administrative problems.

When I spoke with manufacturers and others, they mentioned the lag time — T plus X —when trying to buy foreign exchange. Sometimes, the X is more than one month, even up to two months. For example, you pay for forex on February 1 but don’t get it until April. They need to bridge that gap.

They also need to pay contractors on time. If I were the president, I’d tell my finance minister that anyone who does a contract for the government must be paid within 21 days. The implication of this is that it would restore the gilt-edged status of government contracts. In the past, someone with a Federal Government contract could go to a bank, borrow money without collateral, and the bank would trust that the Federal Government would pay. But now, contractors go years without being paid. They need to fix that. The government must address these behavioral issues within the business community. Once that’s balanced, they can focus on foreign investments. But first, they must handle the housekeeping required to make that happen.

Instead of focusing solely on foreign direct investment, shouldn’t the government prioritize energizing local economies and working with state governments to set up industries that could start producing within 18 to 20 months?

It’s not only possible, it’s mandatory. However, the government isn’t thinking in those terms. For international investment, it takes about six years of stability to attract foreign direct investment. Foreign portfolio investors, on the other hand, may enter if they see opportunities for quick profit, such as undervalued stocks or favourable exchange rates. To attract foreign direct investment, President Tinubu’s government needs six years of stable fiscal, monetary, trade and structural reforms. With only two years remaining, that’s a challenge.

In the SDP, our plan was to ensure government revenue has no leakage, stabilize inflation to single digits, and create an environment where the naira is as dependable as any foreign currency. This would encourage people to retain wealth in naira, lower factor prices, generate jobs, and improve infrastructure to reduce costs for everyone. However, the government’s current handling of the foreign exchange policy has led to a decrease in the value of the naira, despite increasing the budget from N35 trillion to N47.9 trillion, which has led to a $28 billion shortfall.

Given the possibility of pushing the budget to about N50 trillion with constituency projects, while the previous budget was lower in figure, is the 2025 budget actually lower in value?

The budget is $5 billion lower, down from $33 billion last year to $28 billion. Despite borrowing, including N15 trillion for debt financing, they have managed better than the Buhari administration by avoiding excessive ways and means. While they have become more active in the bond market, borrowing in foreign exchange will still require future repayment.

But realistically, if you had become president in 2023, did you imagine that this was the quantum of challenges you would have met?

I was expecting worse. If you look at President Muhammadu Buhari’s years in office, they were years of suspense, where the country went into a coma and occasionally came out to do something. This may have been because the president was ill at some point, or perhaps because his VP and he appeared to share the same policies. Whenever the president travelled, something else would happen. In the end, they had a mismanaged central bank that allowed them to mismanage their budget and borrow unnecessarily. They also mismanaged the currency and everything else. So, I knew that was the situation. But when you come in, you do not worsen the case. If you meet a patient in the hospital with very high blood pressure, the first thing you don’t do is give them salty food that will worsen it. You need to stop the bleeding. You have to raise all the indices necessary to start normalization. The problem, if I were to blame President Tinubu, is that he did not stabilize the economy. When he came in, his job was to stabilize the economy—just like stabilizing a patient in the hospital. Then you start treatment. Now, he wants to do this treatment. I’ve seen some of the speeches he’s made here and there. He now wants to stabilize, but he already applied the wrong medicines. So, the patient is now in a very terrible state. If he can focus, have his own programme — not just flying to Dubai today, Abu Dhabi tomorrow, and so on— he needs a coordinated economic plan. He should start by ensuring the 2025 budget, which I think is poorly written and poorly articulated, is implemented properly. In fact, he should take a step back, finish the 2024 budget strongly (which they mismanaged), and then begin the 2025 budget with a clear plan to pin things down and create stability.

For example, if they can keep the naira from fluctuating for 120 days, I would know they are serious. Just don’t let it fluctuate for 120 days.

What do you mean when you say you are coming? 

The debt outlives the administration. So you are hoping that the SDP is going to take over from the Tinubu government? That’s why we are working. That’s why we are making sure whatever advice we give to them now is in their self-interest because we don’t want the whole city to be damaged.

There have been reports that the northern elite are meeting with some southern leaders and making plans for the 2027 elections. Is it true that there are efforts to take out the Tinubu government?

Of course, there are plans. Our intention is to ensure they are stable, complete their four years, and then step aside. That’s the core of the conversation. The SDP’s approach is to have a national consensus on how to run the economy, security, growth and development— not just a conspiracy focused on removing one person. In the past, we’ve had situations where it was about forcing someone out, like with Goodluck Jonathan. We don’t want that. What we want now is to have a consensus on how the government is performing and what needs to be done once it’s time for a change in leadership. The most important role for the SDP is to present our manifesto to all those in politics who believe change is necessary. This change must be based on principles, manifestos, programmes and plans, not personalities.

Looking at the N49.7 trillion 2025 budget, including the breakdowns on crude oil production, exchange rates, and revenue projections, what stands out to you the most? Do you think this is the best budget the government could have presented to the National Assembly?

The positive aspect I see is that they managed to avoid over-reliance on ways and means. However, there are several concerns. First, it is unconstitutional to ask journalists or the public to leave appropriation sessions. According to the constitution, matters involving money must go to the Committee of the Whole House and should be public.

Second, the governing mentality is concerning. The Minister of National Planning refers to states and local governments as “sub-nationals,” a term the IMF uses, rather than addressing them as per our constitution, where revenue belongs to the states and local governments. This is incorrect. Additionally, using terms like “GOEs” instead of government-owned enterprises is not helpful to the public understanding of governance. This mentality is reflected in the way the budget is presented. It seems as if the budget was simply handed to them and copied from external sources, leading to problems. Now, regarding revenue generation: How can the entire Federal Government expect only N39 trillion in revenue for the entire year? This is insufficient. With the number of ministers and Nigeria’s size, this is poor performance. It’s like running a 100-room hotel but only generating revenue from 8 or 10 rooms.

Given the devaluation and the current situation, they should have been able to generate around N120 trillion in revenue. The low revenue now leads to higher expenditure, which causes a deficit. This deficit results in more borrowing, delayed payments to contractors, and other economic manipulations. Therefore, the first correction should be in revenue collection. These numbers are estimates, and the National Assembly should push to exceed the expected N39 trillion. Aiming for at least N100 trillion is essential and must be pursued immediately. It is unacceptable for the Tinubu administration not to aim for revenue generation closer to N100 trillion.

How can high-revenue agencies like NNPC, Customs and FIRS help increase revenue? Are there gaps, or do we need to produce more?

It’s about corporate governance. They’re not governing properly. Ask importers about customs duties—how much actually reaches the government, and how much goes elsewhere. There are leaks, especially in solid minerals. When they talk about reforms, they don’t truly understand the meaning. If I were President Tinubu, I’d gift him a dictionary with “reform” marked so he can understand. Without fundamental changes, reforms won’t work. The key question is: where is the government money, and who’s holding it? For example, crude oil theft—has it been fully addressed? No, it’s only slightly reduced, but the root problem remains.

Recently, we pushed the mark on crude oil production to over 2.5 million, I think, for the first time in a long time. Is this a sign or a signal of better days to come?

You can push for investment from IOCs, but producing and collecting revenue are two different things. Senator Abiru, who is part of the system, has pointed out that even government enterprises are not remitting the money they should. He’s a former banker and a senator from Lagos, not an SDP member or someone trying to replace them. He’s part of the establishment and is saying the revenue isn’t coming in. Look at solid minerals. Dele Alake has been quiet lately. He needs to explain how he’s improved revenue from this sector. What he did was raise tariffs for licensed miners and create regulatory hurdles, but illegal mining is still thriving. The money stolen from illegal mining, from Zamfara to Osun to Ebonyi, is far greater than the entire budget they’re writing now.

There are concerns that the budgets for almost 60 government-owned enterprises (GOEs) are missing and not stated in the budget. What’s your take on this?

I wonder what exactly is happening, as there are many missing links in that budget. You look at it and see several MDAs with lumped-up budgets that are not explicitly or transparently explained. These are the issues. 

So you don’t really hope that things could get better to the point that if Tinubu government performs, his government could be retained. You don’t see that happening, do you?

If you want me to cut one of my fingers as a donation for them to perform, I will do it. I don’t mind. I want them to perform. But their performance is already halfway. The purpose of me coming here now is to give them some ideas for their 2025 budget. It’s not my budget, but we want them to perform because we want our people to live well. I drove to your office on a road maintained by Wike, who is working for APC. I’m not against that, but I don’t see how they can give us the progress and speed we need beyond this administration. They can’t provide that.

We need to bring a better government than we have now. But while we’re helping them patch things up, we also need to bring a stronger SDP government that can help, based on principles. Look at Chapter 2 of the Constitution, the National Development Plan, and the talent the country has. Our people have the right not to live in insecurity, not to live in poverty. They have the right to see the government account for its revenue and ensure that those responsible in government are doing their jobs. So, if President Tinubu sees what we are doing, ups his game, makes his work more serious, and becomes more accessible to Nigerians—not just giving a once-a-year interview—then we become more competitive. We will still defeat them.

Do you think he needs to talk more to Nigerians?

He needs to communicate. It’s not just about doing the job; communication is part of the requirement. You know, like they say in aviation, you have to aviate, navigate, and communicate. You can’t say, “I’m a pilot, I’m flying, and the control tower is talking to you,” and then say, “No, I’m busy, I’m navigating.” That’s not good airmanship. Similarly, in government, you can’t say, “I am busy governing, I can’t talk to you.” It’s not done.

So he has not done well in terms of communication. Does he need to do more?

Yes, and I understand why they’re not talking. They know that if they speak, we’ll respond, and people can compare what they say with what we say. So they refuse to engage. But eventually, they will have to talk. They’ve done one budget, and now they’re working on a second, and we can see that they’re not meeting their own targets. Check the statistics from their bureau—they’re not doing well. I’m monitoring their plans. They want to rebase the economy and adjust the inflation database, and I’m watching them closely. Even if they meet their objectives, my concern with the 2025 budget is that the objective is not good enough. If you’re paying high fees for your child’s education, and the child says, “This year, I’ll make sure I get D’s in all my subjects and no F’s,” you wouldn’t be satisfied. You’d want them to aim for A’s, or at least a few B’s. The 2025 budget they’ve set is aiming for a D, and some doubt they’ll even achieve that. The country needs at least a B+. So, what is the Tinubu administration telling the National Assembly? Can the 2025 budget offer hope to Nigerians, and what should they expect? We’ve been analyzing the 2025 budget, the hopes for the year, and what we can expect under this administration.

What are your expectations for Nigeria as a citizen?

My expectations as a citizen are that the democracy we have will continue, which will give us an opportunity to ventilate our ideas, and that the government of the day will recognize the extraordinary cooperation that Nigerians have given to the Tinubu administration. The government should now turn a new leaf and try to do something immediately to relieve the excruciating pain that people are going through. The government must realize that it does not have eternal life. The government is approaching its midterm, and anything it wants to do for Nigerians has already consumed almost half of its time. This year, they must address the word insecurity. They must also address the issue of poverty, factor price fluctuation, and employment.  People who are desperately poor should have the ability to take care of themselves if given the opportunity to earn a living by working. The infrastructure that the government is supposed to build to aid productivity must be built, and the political class should think less of themselves and more of the people. The amount of money included in the budget for maintaining people in high places must be reviewed downwards, and these resources should be diverted appropriately in line with Chapter 2 of the Constitution: the welfare of the people.

We should also invest in agriculture to make food cheaper for the people. The major challenge facing Nigerians right now, apart from insecurity, is hunger, which arises from inflation and the high prices of goods and services, especially food. It’s not a case of people not knowing how to manage; there’s no more room for Nigerians to stretch tiny budgets and salaries. The government must address that. The government must also address the cost of electricity, other services, education, and health care. If the government can do this, then we can hope that the next government will do far better. Right now, their budget is called a budget of restoration, so what they are doing is trying to restore and at least give people back a bit of the comfort they once enjoyed but lost due to the government’s fiscal and monetary policies.

Was that an economic sign or was that a ministry?

No, they’re just singing blues there right now. So if he goes there and does something similar in agriculture. The last minister, the first minister he chose, was busy saying children were going to school too early, at the age of 18 and all of that. There’s a lot of money in the education sector—a lot of money that could have been used to transform universities, create employment, and expand faculties. But they don’t do any of those things. That’s why I’m saying that the president himself—I understand his vision, I don’t agree with it, but I understand it. What he is trying to do is this: I will soften the Nigerian economy, get Nigerian youths to endure a bit of suffering, and then foreign investments will come in through foreign direct investment. But none of that has happened. And the reason it hasn’t happened is that the environment is not macroeconomically stable enough. Foreign investors are watching how local investors are reacting. I have money in my pocket, and I’m watching President Tinubu’s budget. I haven’t seen anything in this year’s budget that suggests I should bring out that little money in my pocket and risk it in the economy. Therefore, my partner in China, Indonesia, or the USA will also be more sceptical. What I want us to understand is this: they should stop talking about what they met on the ground. Apart from the fact that their party has been in power for nine years (though I don’t want to go into politics), they should stop using that excuse. What they met on the ground is what they used to campaign. They knew what they would meet, so there’s no excuse.

For every Nigerian, the average citizen watching tonight, 2025 is a big year. The president and his government will be entering the two-year mark, halfway through their term. For any citizen preparing their minds, whether for the worst or for the best, what would be your final word to them tonight regarding expectations and how to manage them?

Prepare your mind for the best. Hope for the best. But know that this best is a matter of the future. And to ensure that best comes, speak out about it. In fact, in SDP, we were thinking about doing our own alternative budget. We considered its legality, as the government can be oversensitive, and our national chairman is a very careful person. But we came up with the idea. I’m not sure if there’s something like a shadow government in the presidential and federal executive system, but we said, “Let us do a budget and read it out. Let them see how to do a budget.”

People might think we are trying to take over the government, but it shouldn’t be difficult to create a budget of hope, a budget of renewal, a budget of prosperity for the people. What they are doing now, I don’t want to be rude, but they need to improve at governing. The people of Nigeria should still have hope—not only that this government can be pushed to do right, but that there is an alternative in two years. Also, the state governments should not delay President Tinubu’s work now; 36 state governors, some of whom have worse budgets than the Federal Government, need to do better. The new autonomy granted to local governments should allow them to learn budgeting so that across the board, Nigeria will have a robust economy. I believe that faith in Nigeria should not be shaken, and I hope all will be well with the country. God bless Nigeria.