Aregbesola: What’s Next on the Political Radar?

Former Governor of Osun state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, may be working towards making a major political move shortly after he and his numerous supporters dumped the All Progressives Congress in Osun state. Adedayo Akinwale writes.

For so long, the former Governor of Osun state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola was one of the formidable foot soldiers of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, the President of Nigeria.

Even when Tinubu was the governor of Lagos State, Aregbesola was his Commissioner for works, the position he held till he contested for the governorship position in Osun.

He had so much power that he became the go-to person if Tinubu was proving difficult on anything. He was one of his most trusted lieutenants. Because of the enormous political power he wielded within the Tinubu political family, he was the lord of Alimosho.

After the tsunami that swept away the Alliance for Democracy (AD) in the 2003 elections in the South-west, leaving Lagos as the only surviving state, Tinubu who was then the Governor of Lagos State decided to form the Action Congress (AC) in order for him to have total grip on the party. The formation of  AC led to the untimely death of AD. The AC later metamorphosed to Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) before it fused into the All Progressives Congress (APC).

However, during the 2007 elections, Tinubu single-handedly brought little known Aregbesola to Osun to contest the governorship election. It was an open secret that Tinubu also bankrolled the election. Though INEC declared former Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola, who was re-econtesting for a second term in office as the winner, the Supreme Court subsequently annulled the election and declared Aregbesola as the winner in November, 2010.

While he held sway as governor of Osun state, Aregbesola continued to wield enormous political power in Alimosho, Lagos state which serves as his political base. Despite serving as a governor in Osun, Tinubu doesn’t take any step without Aregbesola’s input. So much was the confidence and trust Tinubu had in him.

In fairness to Aregbesola, he was equally loyal to Tinubu to a fault.

Following the completion of his two terms of  eight years in office, Aregbesola, against the mood of the state and in respect to Tinubu thwarted the zoning formula in the state, to ensure his cousin, Gboyega Oyetola emerged as governor in 2018.

The governorship seat had earlier been zoned to Osun West that had been marginalized for a long time. The political move almost cost the APC the election before a needless rerun was ordered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Aregbesola’s cold war with Oyetola

It wasn’t long before Aregbesola and Oyetola fell out. Both of them became political enemies. Prior to the 2022 governorship poll, Aregbesola and the APC in Osun had been at loggerheads over issues of anti-party activities.

Aregbesola, who is the immediate past Minister of Interior along with his supporters were firmly opposed to the re-election bid of Oyetola saying he betrayed him.

The political differences led to the formation of The Osun Progressives (TOP), a pressure group within the APC which mobilised support against Oyetola.

His attack on Tinubu

While his political battle with Oyetola rages ahead of the 2022 governorship election in Osun and 2023 general election, Aregbesola did not spare his erstwhile leader, Tinubu in the attack.

He maintained that the same treatment given to Akinwumi Ambode in Lagos would be given to Oyetola.

“As it was in Lagos yesterday, so shall it be in Osun today. What is good for the goose is also good for the gander. Only God can terrify us, not man. Go and tell them wherever they are, we own this party. We own this Afenifere group. We own this people-loving group started by our patriarchs, Obafemi Awolowo and Bola Ige. This was Elder Akande’s group before he temporarily left us.

“That was how it was in Lagos at a time; a governor derailed and the party members unseated him using the ballot boxes. We exalted him beyond his status and he turned himself to a god over us and we had sworn to ridicule anyone who compares himself to God. God has no competitor; He is enough to be God,” Aregbesola had said then.

After the APC lost the Osun governorship poll in 2022, the group was dissolved and subsequently metamorphosed to Omoluabi Progressives.

Aregbesola’s Suspension

In October 2024, Aregbesola was suspended from the party through a resolution sent to the State Working Committee (SWC) by his Ward Executive citing anti-party activities.

The party in a resolution signed by the ward Chairman, Tajudeen Lawal and forwarded to the National Chairman of the party, Dr. Abdulahi Ganduje accused Aregbesola of creating divisions within the party by establishing a splinter faction.

The APC in Osun claimed Aregbesola’s actions have fueled internal divisions, with party leaders asserting that his influence on certain groups has caused significant discord

His Loyalists Quit APC

With the political war showing no sign of abating, Aregbesola’s loyalists decided to quit the ruling party last weekend.

Spokesperson of the group, Abosede Oluwaseun, said members resolved to quit APC because of “ostracisation from the party, suspension and expulsion of leaders without fair hearing, and continuous denigration of the structure.” Oluwaseun, who said the members, expressed their readiness to join another political party ahead of the 2026 Osun governorship election.

While addressing the stakeholders, the former governor said it was time to work “aggressively” to entrench good governance in Osun.

His words: “The path we have toed is a smooth path, highly reassuring and full of good tides that will propel our dear state to greatness. Therefore, you must show more commitment and attract genuine people who are ready to walk this path of righteousness with us. We are open to all regardless of political, religious, or socio-cultural leanings. We have the numbers, strength, and political acumen to provide a leadership that will make Osun the toast of its peers. By the grace of God, we shall succeed.”

Why Aregbesola quit APC

Meanwhile, fresh facts have emerged over the decision of  Aregbesola and his supporters to leave the APC. Checks revealed that the decision might not be unconnected with his impending expulsion from the party.

A letter dated January 7, 2025 and jointly signed by the Chairman and Secretary of the APC, Tajudeen Lawal and Kamoru Alao said that Aregbesola has been immediately suspended.

The letter read in part: “We write to formally bring to your attention the findings and resolution arising from the disciplinary process initiated concerning allegations of anti-party activities levelled against you by the Disciplinary Committee, where you were allowed to be heard by the principles of natural justice. At the end of the investigation, the State Executive Committee (SEC) considered the report of the Disciplinary Committee.

“Having carefully considered the findings and recommendations of the Committee, SEC has resolved to accept the recommendation of your immediate expulsion from the All Progressives Congress.

“The decision was predicated on the clear evidence of your actions, which undermined the unity and integrity of the Party in violation of the provisions of Article 21 of the APC Constitution guiding the conduct and discipline of members.

“As a result, with the approval of your expulsion, you cease to be a member of APC. Consequently, you are not to hold yourself out as a member or act in any capacity on behalf of the party in any manner whatsoever.

“While acknowledging your past contributions to the party, we trust that you will comply with this decision and act according to the directives in this communication.”

Before his expulsion from the party, political leaders from the six geo-political zones have already started political realignment to wrest power from the ruling APC ahead of the  2027 elections. A movement Aregbesola is believed to be part of.

Barring any last minute change, with the crisis in the PDP that has remained intractable, while peace also appeared to have eluded the Labour Party, as well as the growing numbers of aggrieved members of APC, plans to fuse these like-minds into the Social Democratic Party has been set in motion.

THISDAY gathered that the reason for choosing the SDP stemmed from the fact that registering a new party might prove difficult, hence, the decision to fuse into an existing political party and make it a force.

Checks revealed that there had been meetings and political realignment among former Vice President Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the presidential candidate of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso and Peter Obi of LP, fueling speculations about a possible coalition to defeat Tinubu and APC in 2027.

On January 8, 2025, a former governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai met behind closed doors with the leadership of SDP in Abuja at the party’s national secretariat. Also at the meeting were a former Chief Security Officer to the late General Sani Abacha, Major Hamza Al-Mustapha (rtd) and Atiku’s former spokesman, Otunba Segun Showunmi.

Showunmi, in a post on his verified Facebook page described the meeting as a “strategic gathering,” convened by SDP chairman, Shehu Gabam, to evaluate the state of opposition politics in Nigeria.

Similarly, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, hosted Kwankwaso, and ex-governor of Cross River, Donald Duke, in Abeokuta, Ogun State.

At the end of the meeting, Kwankwaso, disclosed that the discussions centred on “significant national issues, including the future of politics and governance in Nigeria.

With Aregbesola now technically a political orphan with no base in Alimosho, his former stronghold in Lagos and without a party to his name in Osun, all fingers are crossed as he unveils his next political moves.

While the waiting game continues, it should, however, be noted that politicians who engage in anti-party activities, and those who actively work against the interest of the party hardly bounce back to reckoning.

Related Articles