Stock Market Sustains 2025 Rally as MTN, Others Contribute 70.1% to Market Cap

Kayode Tokede  

The Nigerian equities market sustained 2025 rally at the close of trade last Friday with MTN Nigeria Communication Plc and 10 others contributing about 70.1 per cent to overall market capitalisation as of February 14, 2025. 

THISDAY’s investigation showed that the market capitalisation in its Year-till-Date (YtD) performance appreciated by N4.66 trillion, helped by demand for MTN Nigeria Communication,  Dangote Cement Plc and 10 other fundamental stocks. 

The market capitalisation that opened in January 2025 at N62.763 trillion, gained 7.42 per cent to close on February 14, 2025, at N67.418 trillion with 11 blue-chip companies contributing a combined N47.3 trillion.  

THISDAY analysis showed that Dangote Cement earned the top spot as the  most capitalised firm with N8.18 trillion market capitalisation, followed by Airtel Africa with N8.11 trillion market capitalisation and MTN Nigeria Communication with N5.55 trillion as of February 14, 2025.

However, MTN Nigeria Communication has been the major driver in the stock market growth so far in 2025 amid federal government moves to hike tariffs. The stock price of the telecommunication giant recorded the highest gain,  of about 32.1 per cent or N1.35 trillion in its YtD performance as of February 14, 2025. 

The stock price of MTN Nigeria opened this year for trading at N200 per share and closed last week at N264.20 per share on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX). 

For Dangote Cement, it has gained  0.3 per cent in its YtD to close at N480 per share as of February 14, 2025, from N478.80 per share it opened for trading this year.

The cement maker has not announced its 2024 financial statement on the floor of the exchange, but capital market analysts foresee impressive earnings and robust dividend payout to shareholders.   

The multinational cement manufacturer had reported N2.5 trillion in revenue for the nine months of 2024, largely fueled by increased local market sales.

According to the cement maker’s result, its revenue grew by 69.1 per cent from N1.5 trillion reported in the same period of 2023 with Nigeria’s sales volume rising by 9.5 per cent and Pan-Africa market sales declining by 1.6 per cent.

A breakdown of figures shows Dangote Nigeria’s EBITDA rose by 37.25 per cent to N506.11 billion while the Pan-African regions were up 45.35 per cent to N170.01 billion.

In addition, after-tax profit during the period increased by a single-digit 0.55 per cent to N279.09 billion from N277.5 billion.

Further findings revealed that the stock prices of Airtel Africa, Seplat Energy, Geregu Power Plc and BUA Cement Plc have traded flat at N2,156.90, N5,700, N1,150 and N93 per share, respectively.

These four companies have contributed a sum of N17.48 trillion to the market capitalisation as of February 14, 2025.  

The research by THISDAY revealed that BUA Food recorded N6.7 trillion market capitalisation, while Seplat Energy and BUA Cement’s market capitalisation stood at N3.35 trillion and N3.15 trillion, respectively. 

THISDAY findings also show that as of February 14, 2025, Geregu Power had N2.88 trillion; Transcorp Power, N2.74 trillion;  Aradel Holdings Plc, N2.3 trillion; Guaranty Trust Holding Company Plc, N2.17 trillion and Zenith Bank, N2.12 trillion. 

Findings showed further that these firms are defying the odds by tightening their belts, and applying cost optimisation strategies and innovative solutions to navigate Nigeria’s weak macroeconomic environment and optimise the risk attached to it.

The stock market in 2025 has continued on a positive trajectory, attributable to President Bola Tinubu’s foreign exchange policies, the removal of fuel subsidies that have attracted more foreign investors’ participation, and impressive corporate earnings by listed companies.

A Professor of Capital Market with the Nasarawa State University Keffi, Prof. Uche Uwaleke recently expressed that the Nigerian capital market is over-concentrated with the attendant ‘keyman’ risks, part of what are major barriers to market development.

 “This is demonstrated by the fact that only seven out of over 155 listed companies account for over 60per cent of equities market capitalisation. Many eligible companies including multinational companies particularly in the telecom and oil and gas sectors remain unlisted. Out of the over four million companies registered by the Corporate Affairs Commission as of 2020, only 155 companies on NGX, and less than 50 on NASD and nine on the NGX Growth Board,” he said.

However, he recommended that privatised government enterprises be listed on the NGX so that the capital market can develop and support the nation’s development.

Meanwhile, analysts believe the stock market performance so far in 2025 is a reflection of uncertainty in the domestic economy.

 An Investment Banker & Stockbroker, Tajudeen Olayinka in a chat with THISDAY stated that stock market performance so far in 2025 has not been impressive due to the 2024 year-end rally that came rather too late and unimpressive.

“The market had a delayed year-end rally that arose from the delayed allotment and listing of shares recently offered to the public by some of the banks that approached the market for capital raising between June 2024 and now. The prolonged CBN capital verification could be ascribed as the principal causative factor for the unusual performance of the market in January 2025. As a result, the market failed to enjoy a reasonable level of liquidity,” he explained.

The Managing Director Arthur Steven Asset Management Limited (ASAM), Mr. Olatunde Amolegbe, stated that the stock market growth in 2025 is underpinned by ongoing bank recapitalization efforts, new listings, and anticipated monetary policy easing by the CBN.

Amolegbe, highlighted Nigeria’s relative market attractiveness as a key factor in attracting increased foreign portfolio inflows (FPI), provided stable policies are maintained.

He noted that the bank recapitalisation process is set to boost investor confidence, while high-profile listings such as Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited and Dangote Refinery are expected to enhance market liquidity and broaden investment opportunities.

The projected bullish trend in 2025 comes as investors position themselves ahead of 2024 fiscal year results and dividend declarations, particularly in the banking sector.

However, Amolegbe cautioned that the market’s performance will depend on critical factors such as the country’s economic growth trajectory, monetary policy direction, and corporate earnings results.

The firm, however, anticipated a shift toward equities as fixed-income yields decline, driven by the CBN’s likely adoption of a more accommodative monetary stance.

Despite lingering concerns over exchange rate volatility and inflation, conservative sectors such as banking, consumer goods, and industrials are expected to perform well, offering steady returns for investors.

He added that, “the 2025 outlook for the Nigerian stock market remains optimistic, bolstered by strategic reforms, policy adjustments, and improving investor confidence. While challenges such as exchange rate instability and inflation persist, key sectors are positioned to drive market performance and deliver strong returns for investors.”