2027: Is Tinubu Invincible?

Growing concerns about the place of the opposition in the 2027 elections are valid, but not absolute, writes Olawale Olaleye

For as many that have concluded that the 2027 presidential run might be a walkover for President Bola Tinubu, there are sufficient grounds to support their fears. It’s not out of cowardice but a position also backed by some shifty facts and realities.

While nothing is cast in stone about the nation’s political theatrics, what is generally seen as depicting evident state capture a few months to the opening up of the next round of election calendar might have given fillip to this mindset.

A seemingly all-powerful president, who has at his whims every key institution of state, including the other arms of government that are meant to serve as checks for balance of power, against all democratic ethos, is not one to be taken for granted.

But is that enough for other stakeholders to walk away from the next presidential election or for the opposition to be written off since head or tail, they do not stand a chance at the poll? Maybe not.

The assumption that the president and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) are not keen about a credible electoral process and might likely “write results” is at best a figment of the imagination of an otherwise lazy opposition.

If the workings are right and the opposition is able to get its electoral mathematics correctly, the opposition would make no new history at the poll but reinforce the fact that elections are all about getting the homework right and the work done.

There are many things the opposition needs to do to demystify the creepy myth about President Tinubu’s alleged invincibility. But they must be done and done right with all sincerity and without letting unbridled ambition stand in their way.

One of the routes to a successful opposition outing in 2027 is that a northern candidate is not an option because it will not fly. It, however, stems from two approaches, on account of the intrigues that shadowed the 2023 presidential bout.

Take, for instance, in the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the majority of the party’s governors are southerners. Out of the current PDP 12 states, the south controls seven: Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Delta, Enugu, Osun, Oyo, and Rivers. The northern five are Adamawa, Bauchi, Plateau, Taraba, and Zamfara States.

Thus, if after former President Muhammadu Buhari’s eight years in the saddle, and the succession battle was about power returning to the south, there is no way four years of Tinubu would be considered sufficient or having taken care of that void. That is the first leg to this consideration.

The second leg is that if the north shares this sentiment, which suffices from all rational thinking and equitable power distribution in Nigeria’s diverse and multi-ethnic society, then the options before the south are also limited, for the north to play along.

In otherwise, the north would either be pleased with a Tinubu running the two terms of eight years in spite of the challenges of governance and alleged overbearingness, or support the south with the choice of a candidate, who cannot run for more than a term of four years.

The reason for this particular option is that with a party like the PDP going north for a presidential choice after only one term of a southern president could create many more “Nyesom Wike” in the run-up to the exercise, who would not only openly object but do everything humanly possible to frustrate the party from winning.

For these people, especially the southern governors, this is beyond party affiliation or loyalty to their platform. It is about the place of their region in the political equation of the country vis-à-vis the survival of their respective zones.

Unfortunately, this prickly reality of the current political calculus forbids the thought of an Atiku Abubakar candidacy, either in the PDP or the coalition being proposed as an alternative platform for the 2027 elections.

The former vice-president’s best chances were unarguably between 2015 and 2023. He might have missed the last train, which left station in 2023. This, of course, has nothing to do with his age, but the prevailing materiality as dictated by the nation’s mercurial politics.

Thus, the more desperation the former vice-president exhibits in his quest for power, the more off-putting it is for other stakeholders, the governors especially, to want to trust him with any coalition let alone offering him the joint platform to chase his presidential bid.

Visiting Buhari of all persons – a man who would not lift a finger for himself much less someone else – is definitely not going to yield any result, much as the grounds for the visit was equally self-serving and ostentatious.

Otherwise, how many times did he visit him when he was president or before he was elected president, either for Eid-el-Fitr or Eid-el-Kabir? It’s obviously politics and ineffectively old-fashioned.

If at all a northern card is to be tossed up – just for some weird reasons – it would be from the liberal Middle Belt/North Central axis, whose candidates could stand astride, with each leg on the northern and the southern podia and appeal to both interests evenhandedly. That would be the only northerner eligible for a presidential run in 2027.

Perhaps a more cursory look at this option suffices. See it this way. If former Senate President, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki, decides to run in 2027, he only has between a Southeast and south-south ally to pick as a suitable choice for running mate.

In other words, the ace is in the south as a region in the next election. Even at that, it would still mean taking a more difficult route to wrest power from a politically shrewd Tinubu.

Against this backdrop, the options are, therefore, between candidates from the Southeast and the South-south, meaning the Southwest cannot be in any serious consideration by the opposition since the incumbent is from the zone already. It is, however, going to be one of the key battleground zones.

So, what are the options from these two zones? First is the presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 polls and former Anambra State governor, Mr. Peter Obi. Second is a former governor of Rivers State, one of the APC presidential aspirants in 2023, and erstwhile Minister of Transportation, Hon. Rotimi Amaechi.

The third unlikely consideration is the Oyo State Governor, ‘Seyi Makinde, and last but not least, former President Goodluck Jonathan.

With a northerner as running mate, perhaps one from the North West, three of these four could give a good run in 2027 and make Tinubu’s seeming invincibility evaporate in seconds.

Narrowing the four options to three is deliberate because Makinde, coming from the same zone as the incumbent, is already at a disadvantage. With Tinubu’s imposing stature, an average southerner would rather he was stuck with Tinubu and endured the discomfort as Makinde does not seem to have what it could take to route Tinubu in Southwest.

Although his unconfirmed presidential bid is already being discussed in hushed tones across many power centres, just as some of his recent political moves are being interpreted to mean an intending presidential projection, he would be a hard-sell against Tinubu in this very contest.

Away from Makinde, both Obi and Amaechi, too, might give the north a huge concern. The north does not seem like it could wait another eight years after Tinubu’s first four years (and assuming he lost his re-election), no matter the pain they are currently going through. They would rather they endured his excesses until he was pushed out through the ballot.

This, therefore, makes Jonathan the most eligible, visible, likely choice, and major threat to the Tinubu presidency, because it is going to be a one term presidency, and could secure immense support from the Southeast and South-south and above all, the north.

The possibility, also, that some Southwest states, in addition to Osun and Oyo, that are currently being controlled by the PDP, might equally play ball, is quite high.

For a Tinubu presidency that has refused to respect or reckon with his APC governors and leaders in Southwest in nearly all appointments and decisions affecting their states, it would be sheer foolhardy to assume that their support is automatic, especially if they could do their mathematics differently.

Yet, for Jonathan, there is still another obstacle lying prostate in his path. It is the amendment to the law forbidding a president being sworn in three times. This didn’t stop him from running in 2015, though, as he already won the case at the appeal, the matter might be reawakened for the purposes of the 2027 elections.

Besides, with the current state of play, which finds the judiciary fast losing its place as the bastion of justice and the last hope for the common man, nothing is guaranteed if the matter is taken back to court, in the event that Jonathan caves in to pressure, decides to run and is seen to pose a huge threat to the re-election of the incumbent.

Finally, two more things further stand out in the Jonathan option. His acceptance to run, which is said not to be showing any positive signs at the moment. That is one. The other thing is how the same set of people, who travelled round the country to de-market him would take another trip to say the 2015 adventures were all lies or politics. Whatever that would say of them and their intention is better imagined.

Many of the claims at that time were not entirely false, the truth, however, is that as a brand, Jonathan has moved on progressively from the station the APC train left him in 2015, and has attained visible and impressive global acclaim as a decent leader, whose ideology is pro-people, hinged on peace and development.

He has earned the respect of many world leaders between then and now, with international assignments that have further acquitted him of the many darts slung at him in the name of power, politics, and election.

If the president and his team must know, there was nothing that was used as a campaign against Jonathan in the 2015 election that is not present today, even with higher propensity.

From Boko Haram’s unceasing attacks to the management of the economy, subsidy and corruption across all sectors, among others, Tinubu would have to double his stripes to get a convincing response in terms of support from the north.

Assuming, for example, that the only option open to the government of the day is to “write results”, who are those that will write the results? Are their lives better today? Do they have the privileges of purchasing cheaper goods at the same market than the others? Or is the government going to carve out a different city for them as compensation for a job well done?

The facts, at least, speak for themselves and what is evident in all of these is that President Tinubu is neither invincible nor mystical, particularly with his one-man approach to leadership and amateur foot-soldiers, favoured with curious appointments that appear to be beyond their capacities.

On the flip side, an opposition victory in 2027 is only feasible if the actors get their game right. But there is no shortcut to undoing the Tinubu presidency. It is a tough call. Not with his sprawling mischief and manifest highhandedness. The workings must be patent and the resolve unassailable. Otherwise, someone might as well grab, snatch, and run with it again in 2027.