Idris: We Don’t Expect Full-blown Crisis in Oil Sector, Despite Intermittent Disruptions

•IEA cuts 2025 demand forecast amid global slowdown signs  

Emmanuel Addeh in Abuja

The federal government has said that it does not foresee a major crisis in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector, despite recent attacks on key infrastructure in the Niger Delta, which have been linked to the political crisis in Rivers State.

Speaking in an interview with France 24, Minister of Information, Mohammed Idris, stated that although there were challenges in the industry, the federal government did not envisage an escalation.

Nigeria’s reliance on the oil sector has long been a defining feature of its economy, with crude accounting for over 90 per cent of its export earnings and about 60 per cent of government revenue, making the economy vulnerable to global oil price fluctuations and local disruptions.

Data for March production showed that the country’s crude oil output dropped to 1.4 million barrels per day, as per the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) quota, and 1.6 million bpd, when condensate is added. The drop in production has been attributed to the attacks on pipelines in the Niger Delta region.

In addition, the international prices of oil had recently fallen significantly, slumping below $60 per barrel last week, on Donald Trump’s unbridled tariffs.

Asked whether Nigeria was seeing a full-fledged crisis in the oil sector now, especially the prices declining, Mohammed said, “No, I don’t think so. I think that what we are seeing are just little issues here and there.

“And the oil chief or the management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) that was fired, as you said, they’ve been there for a while now. And so it is expected that at some point these kinds of changes could happen.

“But I don’t think there’s so much turbulence. I think that the markets are fairly stable. We have pockets of people, some extremists going to the oil pipelines to create some problems there. But I don’t think that it is significant yet to see a major disruption within our oil supply system yet.”

Idris also acknowledged Nigeria’s exposure to the global tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, and expressed delight that there had been a pause.

He stated, “We’re a player on the global scene. And, therefore, the tariffs are also affecting us. So we have our concerns. But it’s heart-warming to hear that there is a pause now. Let’s see what that does.

“We do hope that at the end of the day, the Nigerian and other governments around the world will find the right balance for it. We don’t want this to escalate. We want to have the right balance for everyone to practise trade.”

Idris also responded to issues on Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which had declined in the last 10 years, explaining that it has grown under the Bola Tinubu administration.

He said, “Since the government of President Bola Tinubu came in, there has been some upward movement. In the first quarter of 2024, we saw the GDP moving from about 2.3 per cent to about 3.84 per cent.

“And we are already beginning to see that indication, that it is going to go even further up. So, yes, we had this decline in the last decade, but we have also seen some movement up. And I think that it’s going to get better.”

Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its outlook for global oil demand growth in 2025, warning that a weakening global economy and rising trade tensions are weighing heavily on consumption.

In its monthly oil market report released yesterday, the Paris-based agency revised its demand growth forecast down by 300,000 barrels per day, to 730,000 bpd for 2025. The IEA expected the slowdown to continue into 2026, when demand was projected to rise by just 690,000 bpd—one of the slowest rates in recent years.

The downgrade came despite a strong first quarter, in which global oil consumption rose by 1.2 million bpd—its fastest pace since 2023.

However, that momentum was expected to fade amid a more fragile economic backdrop, particularly in advanced economies, where industrial activity and freight transport remain under pressure.

At the same time, oil prices fell sharply in recent weeks, reflecting growing concerns about oversupply and faltering demand.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped around $10 per barrel since March, falling to $65 and briefly dipping below $60 earlier this month—the lowest level since 2021.

According to IEA, crude production among nine key OPEC+ countries rose by 60,000 bpd in March, reaching 21.94 million bpd—exceeding the group’s agreed target by 830,000 bpd.

Saudi Arabia, which had led efforts to curb supply, edged output up slightly to 9.01 million bpd, just above its target of 8.96 million bpd. The kingdom retained the largest spare capacity in the group, with the ability to raise output by more than three million bpd, if required.

Other major producers, including Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait, all produced well above their assigned quotas. Iraq pumped 4.32 million bpd in March, compared to a target of 3.88 million bpd. The UAE exceeded its ceiling by 350,000 bpd, while Kuwait overproduced by 100,000 bpd.

Nigeria was the only major member to fall short of its target, producing 1.4 million bpd—just below its 1.5 million bpd quota—amid ongoing operational and security challenges.